Lions vs Panthers — Week 4, 2026
The Lions took over trailing 32-26 with 2:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 26, Panthers 32. Panthers won 32-26 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Lions ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 13, 2:06 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.2% for Lions. Our model starts at 9.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 16 for 3 yards (29-A.Evans).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 10 for -6 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta.
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.29 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.29 pts |
| Curl route | +0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.32 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.35 pts |
| Play action | -0.37 pts |
| QB keep | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.75 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.79 pts |
| Spike it | -1.01 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Outside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.