Jets vs Browns — Week 5, 2026
The Jets took over trailing 12-10 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at the Browns 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Jets 17, Browns 12. Jets won 17-12 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. In Browns territory, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.7% for Jets. Our model starts at 63.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 22 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Woods (49-C.Schwesinger).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| Field goal | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Curl route | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.75 pts |
| Deep post | -4.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.