Broncos vs Chargers — Week 5, 2026
The Broncos took over leading 20-17 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 23, Chargers 17. Broncos won 23-17 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Chargers territory, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.9% for Broncos. Our model starts at 87.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to LAC 21 for 13 yards (2-E.Molden; 27-R.Mickens).
- (3:13) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to LAC 19 for 2 yards (2-E.Molden).
- (2:29) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to LAC 20 for 4 yards (4-T.Still).
- (2:00) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 13 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 2-E.Molden).
- (1:12) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.81 pts |
| QB keep | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -1.88 pts |
| Curl route | -2.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.33 pts |
| End-around | -4.40 pts |
| Field goal | -4.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.12 pts |
| Deep post | -7.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.