Buccaneers vs Packers — Week 4, 2026
The Buccaneers took over trailing 17-14 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 14, Packers 17. Packers won 17-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 15, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 31.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 22 for 7 yards (2-B.Cisse). GB-2-B.Cisse was injured during the play.
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 29 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 33-E.Williams).
- (3:17) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 30 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 36 for 6 yards (24-C.Valentine).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 5 yards (33-E.Williams).
- (2:00) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at GB 46 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left.
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 48 for -6 yards (33-E.Williams). Penalty on TB-15-T.Johnson, Illegal Motion, declined.
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to GB 47 for 5 yards (57-B.Cox; 7-J.Bullard).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.03 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.11 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.24 pts |
| QB keep | -0.49 pts |
| Play action | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.93 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Deep post | -1.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.54 pts |
| Outside run | -1.55 pts |
| Inside run | -2.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.