Eagles vs Jaguars — Week 5, 2026
The Eagles took over trailing 16-14 with 3:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 17, Jaguars 19. Jaguars won 19-17 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 35, 3:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 44.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (51-V.Miller).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 25 for -10 yards (sack split by 6-A.Johnson and 44-T.Walker).
- (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 29 for 4 yards (2-J.Lewis).
- (2:14) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 23 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.40 pts |
| Curl route | +1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.24 pts |
| Play action | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Deep post | -0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.