Chiefs vs Raiders — Week 4, 2026
The Chiefs took over trailing 19-17 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 30, Raiders 27. Chiefs won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 35, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.6% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 44.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) 9-K.Walker left guard to KC 38 for 3 yards (94-F.Fatukasi; 3-T.Johnson).
- (4:19) 9-K.Walker left end to KC 40 for 2 yards (35-H.Masses).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
- (3:25) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes pass to 9-K.Walker is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Play action | -0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.73 pts |
| Deep post | -1.97 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.