Falcons vs Ravens — Week 5, 2026
The Falcons took over trailing 30-23 with 2:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 23, Ravens 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 28, 2:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.8% for Falcons. Our model starts at 9.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 5-D.London to ATL 48 for 20 yards (24-M.Starks).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Deep post | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.99 pts |
| Spike it | -1.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.