Jaguars vs Bengals — Week 4, 2026
The Jaguars took over leading 22-17 with 3:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 22, Bengals 17. Jaguars won 22-17 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 87.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:24) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 26 for -2 yards (53-B.Mafe, 27-J.Battle).
- (2:42) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 30 for 4 yards (49-B.Carter).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 45 for 15 yards (22-R.Yeast).
- (2:28) 33-B.Tuten right guard to JAX 45 for no gain (53-B.Mafe; 97-D.Lawrence).
- (2:23) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 45 for 0 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington to CIN 16 for 39 yards (23-D.Hill). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington ran ob at CIN 48 for 7 yards (0-D.Turner).
- (1:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 9 yards (50-B.Combs; 25-R.Lane).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.68 pts |
| QB keep | -0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Play action | -2.14 pts |
| Curl route | -2.27 pts |
| End-around | -4.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.40 pts |
| Deep post | -7.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.