Raiders vs Chargers — Week 2, 2026
The Raiders took over leading 17-14 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 16, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 26, Chargers 14. Raiders won 26-14 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At the Chargers 16, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.2% for Raiders. Our model starts at 89.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 13 for 3 yards (3-D.James; 93-T.Tart). LV-2-A.Jeanty was injured during the play.
- (3:09) 4-M.Washington right tackle to LAC 11 for 2 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Field goal | +1.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.81 pts |
| QB keep | -0.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Play action | -2.30 pts |
| Curl route | -2.57 pts |
| End-around | -4.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.83 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.45 pts |
| Deep post | -8.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.