Broncos vs Patriots — Week 21, 2025
The Broncos took over trailing 10-7 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 1 timeout in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 7, Patriots 10. Patriots won 10-7 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 32, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.5% for Broncos. Our model starts at 32.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 33 for 1 yard (31-C.Woodson).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Gonzalez [44-K.Chaisson] at NE 36. 0-C.Gonzalez to NE 36 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.35 pts |
| Play action | +1.18 pts |
| Deep post | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.84 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.34 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.