Rams vs 49ers — Week 5, 2025
The Rams took over trailing 23-20 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 23, 49ers 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.4% for Rams. Our model starts at 34.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to LA 46 for 11 yards (36-M.Sigle).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to SF 36 for 18 yards (36-M.Sigle).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right end to SF 11 for 20 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (1:13) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 7 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner; 36-M.Sigle). PENALTY on SF-98-M.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at SF 7.
- (1:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (95-A.Collins). FUMBLES (95-A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at SF 1.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.75 pts |
| QB keep | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Deep post | +0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -2.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.