Bears vs Packers — Week 19, 2025
The Bears took over trailing 27-24 with 2:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 31, Packers 27. Bears won 31-27 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 34, 2:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 33.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Loveland [94-K.Brooks].
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 46 for 12 yards (29-X.McKinney; 58-I.McDuffie).
- (2:08) 4-D.Swift right tackle to GB 48 for 6 yards (55-K.Enagbare).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore. CHI-75-O.Trapilo was injured during the play.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift ran ob at GB 25 for 23 yards (29-X.McKinney).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.77 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.43 pts |
| QB keep | +1.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.55 pts |
| Deep post | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.