Commanders vs Broncos — Week 13, 2025
The Commanders took over trailing 20-17 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 20, Broncos 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.9% for Commanders. Our model starts at 32.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at WAS 36 for 16 yards (2-P.Surtain).
- (4:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 37 for 1 yard (22-B.Jones; 99-Z.Allen).
- (4:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 25 for -12 yards (92-D.Tillman).
- (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz (49-A.Singleton).
- (3:42) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DEN 19, Center-45-Z.Triner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 10 yards (56-K.Medrano; 35-P.Butler).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.25 pts |
| Curl route | +0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Play action | -0.67 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| Deep post | -1.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.87 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.