Cardinals vs Jaguars — Week 12, 2025
The Cardinals took over trailing 24-21 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 24, Jaguars 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.5% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 35.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara to ARI 36 for 6 yards (21-C.Braswell).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 29 for -7 yards (26-An.Johnson).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 28 for 9 yards (47-D.Gardeck).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 4-G.Dortch (25-R.Lane) [47-D.Gardeck].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Curl route | +1.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.52 pts |
| Quick out | +0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.17 pts |
| Deep post | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.