Colts vs Seahawks — Week 15, 2025
The Colts took over trailing 15-13 with 2:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Colts 16, Seahawks 18. Seahawks won 18-16 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 32, 2:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 42.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 35 for 3 yards (91-B.Murphy).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right [99-L.Williams].
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to SEA 49 for 16 yards (29-J.Jobe).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to SEA 49 for no gain (3-N.Emmanwori).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 84-T.Warren to SEA 46 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to SEA 42 for 4 yards (7-U.Nwosu; 58-D.Hall).
- (:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.81 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.57 pts |
| QB keep | +1.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Deep post | -0.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.