Patriots vs Broncos — Week 21, 2025
The Patriots took over leading 10-7 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 10, Broncos 7. Patriots won 10-7 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Patriots ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 36, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 76.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 38 for 2 yards (92-D.Tillman; 57-D.Greenlaw).
- (4:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 36 for -2 yards (97-M.Roach, 49-A.Singleton).
- (3:21) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 37 for 1 yard (49-A.Singleton).
- (3:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 31 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.71 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.71 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.43 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB keep | -0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Play action | -1.25 pts |
| Curl route | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.51 pts |
| End-around | -3.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.15 pts |
| Deep post | -5.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.