Bears vs Packers — Week 14, 2025
The Bears took over trailing 28-21 with 3:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 21, Packers 28. Packers won 28-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 3:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 11.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden to GB 47 for 27 yards (24-C.Valentine; 58-I.McDuffie).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus [20-J.Bullard].
- (2:39) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 12-D.Duvernay to GB 23 for 24 yards (29-X.McKinney).
- (2:00) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to GB 17 for 6 yards (56-E.Cooper; 58-I.McDuffie).
- (1:17) 25-K.Monangai left tackle to GB 14 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams; 7-Q.Walker).
- (:35) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to GB 14 for no gain (55-K.Enagbare).
- (:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.92 pts |
| Deep post | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.49 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.