Packers vs Broncos — Week 15, 2025
The Packers took over trailing 34-26 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Packers 26, Broncos 34. Broncos won 34-26 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Packers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 45, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.1% for Packers. Our model starts at 13.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right.
- (4:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 46 for 1 yard (2-P.Surtain).
- (4:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden ran ob at DEN 44 for 10 yards.
- (4:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Brooks left tackle to DEN 41 for 3 yards (0-J.Cooper; 49-A.Singleton).
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at DEN 49 for -8 yards (92-D.Tillman).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 86-J.FitzPatrick to DEN 43 for 6 yards (52-J.Elliss).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 46 for -11 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 99-Z.Allen).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.81 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| Play action | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Deep post | -0.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.96 pts |
| Spike it | -1.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.