Chiefs vs Texans — Week 14, 2025
The Chiefs took over trailing 17-10 with 3:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 10, Texans 20. Texans won 20-10 — the drive turnover.
Chiefs ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 8, 3:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 10.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 87-T.Kelce.
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 0-A.Al-Shaair at KC 26. 0-A.Al-Shaair to KC 26 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.21 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.21 pts |
| Curl route | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.77 pts |
| Quick out | -0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.84 pts |
| QB keep | -0.85 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.89 pts |
| Play action | -0.91 pts |
| Spike it | -1.14 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Outside run | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.