Jaguars vs Seahawks — Week 6, 2025
The Jaguars took over trailing 20-12 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 12, Seahawks 20. Seahawks won 20-12 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 36, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.2% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 11.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 12-T.Hunter to JAX 35 for -1 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
- (3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 84-H.Long [13-E.Jones].
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -7 yards (sack split by 0-D.Lawrence and 7-U.Nwosu).
- (3:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.84 pts |
| Deep post | +0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.55 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
| Spike it | -1.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.