Saints vs Dolphins — Week 13, 2025
The Saints took over trailing 19-11 with 3:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Saints 17, Dolphins 21. Dolphins won 21-17 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 45, 3:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.3% for Saints. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to MIA 43 for 12 yards (26-R.Douglas).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIA 49 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 24-D.Neal to MIA 39 for 10 yards (21-A.Davis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to MIA 23 for 16 yards (23-J.Jones).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to MIA 15 for 8 yards (20-J.Brooks).
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 14-D.Vele is intercepted. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-M.Fitzpatrick intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.94 pts |
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.99 pts |
| Spike it | -1.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.