Seahawks vs Rams — Week 21, 2025
The Seahawks took over leading 31-27 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 31, Rams 27. Seahawks won 31-27 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Seahawks ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 6, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.5% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 77.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:54) 9-K.Walker up the middle to SEA 10 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights).
- (4:21) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 9-K.Walker to SEA 25 for 15 yards (14-C.Durant).
- (3:31) 9-K.Walker up the middle to SEA 28 for 3 yards (48-O.Speights).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (37-Q.Lake).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 35 for 7 yards (14-C.Durant).
- (3:11) 9-K.Walker left tackle to SEA 35 for no gain (8-J.Verse; 10-J.Stewart).
- (3:05) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SEA 49 for 14 yards (37-Q.Lake).
- (3:00) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LA 48 for 3 yards (8-J.Verse; 48-O.Speights).
- (2:12) 9-K.Walker left tackle to LA 37 for 6 yards (48-O.Speights; 37-Q.Lake).
- (2:00) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LA 40 for -3 yards (48-O.Speights, 51-T.Reeder).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left end to LA 45 for -5 yards (55-B.Fiske).
- (:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to LA 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams. ** Injury Update: SEA-42-D.Thomas has returned to the game.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.03 pts |
| Outside run | -1.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Inside run | -1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| Quick out | -1.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.17 pts |
| Play action | -3.22 pts |
| Curl route | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -4.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.68 pts |
| Deep post | -7.19 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.