Bears vs Rams — Week 20, 2025
The Bears took over trailing 17-10 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Bears 17, Rams 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 11.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep middle to 10-L.Burden.
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland to LA 32 for 18 yards (26-K.Kinchens; 3-K.Curl).
- (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle to LA 20 for 12 yards (2-J.McCollough).
- (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to LA 14 for 6 yards (37-Q.Lake).
- (:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 10-L.Burden.
- (:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.
- (:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.30 pts |
| Curl route | +1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.80 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.