Bills vs Ravens — Week 1, 2025
The Bills took over trailing 40-32 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at the Ravens 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bills 41, Ravens 40. Bills won 41-40 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. In Ravens territory, 3:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 18.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 85-J.Hawes to BAL 1 for 29 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
- (2:42) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BAL 1 for no gain (53-K.Van Noy; 92-N.Madubuike).
- (2:06) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left guard to BAL 1 for no gain (98-T.Jones).
- (2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 0-K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.06 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| Field goal | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.86 pts |
| Play action | +0.66 pts |
| Deep post | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Spike it | -1.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.