Cardinals vs Falcons — Week 16, 2025
The Cardinals took over trailing 26-19 with 2:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 19, Falcons 26. Falcons won 26-19 — the drive turnover.
Cardinals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 40, 2:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 10.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 31-E.Demercado up the middle to ARI 45 for 5 yards (90-D.Onyemata). ** Injury Update: ATL-24-A.Terrell has returned to the game.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins ran ob at ARI 44 for -1 yards (20-D.Alford).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 42 for 19 yards (31-X.Watts; 3-J.Bates).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Henderson at ATL 37. 39-C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.11 pts |
| Curl route | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.56 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.