Rams vs Bears — Week 20, 2025
The Rams took over leading 17-10 with 3:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Rams 17, Bears 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 2, 3:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 92.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:03) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 4 for 2 yards (48-D.Jackson; 45-A.Ogbongbemiga).
- (2:59) 23-K.Williams right end pushed ob at LA 14 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (2:52) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 12 for -2 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (2:13) 23-K.Williams left end to LA 14 for 2 yards (9-J.Brisker; 94-A.Booker).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 17 for 3 yards (98-M.Sweat). ** Injury Update: LA-17-D.Adams has returned to the game.
- (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to 50, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-24-E.Neal.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.68 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.18 pts |
| Quick out | -1.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| QB keep | -1.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.99 pts |
| Play action | -3.26 pts |
| Curl route | -3.80 pts |
| End-around | -5.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.58 pts |
| Deep post | -8.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.