Broncos vs Bills — Week 20, 2025
The Broncos took over trailing 27-23 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 30, Bills 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Broncos ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 27, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.2% for Broncos. Our model starts at 26.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at DEN 38 for 11 yards.
- (3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins to DEN 39 for 1 yard (47-C.Benford).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to DEN 37 for -2 yards (24-C.Bishop).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 38 for 25 yards (24-C.Bishop). DEN-54-A.Forsyth was injured during the play.
- (2:00) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
- (1:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 32 for 6 yards (39-C.Lewis).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right tackle to BUF 26 for 6 yards (24-C.Bishop). BUF-27-T.White was injured during the play.
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.87 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Deep post | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.