Eagles vs 49ers — Week 19, 2025
The Eagles took over trailing 23-19 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 19, 49ers 23. 49ers won 23-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Eagles ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.1% for Eagles. Our model starts at 28.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 38 for 3 yards (43-E.Kendricks). ** Injury Update: PHI-26-S.Barkley has returned to the game.
- (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at PHI 40 for 2 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 49-G.Wallow).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Brown.
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at SF 35 for 10 yards (49-G.Wallow).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to SF 20 for 15 yards (43-E.Kendricks; 49-G.Wallow).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at SF 21 for -1 yards (56-K.White).
- (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.
- (:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 6-D.Smith.
- (:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.72 pts |
| QB keep | +1.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.34 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Deep post | +0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.