Panthers vs Rams — Week 19, 2025
The Panthers took over trailing 27-24 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at the Rams 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 31, Rams 34. Rams won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Panthers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. In Rams territory, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.9% for Panthers. Our model starts at 52.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to LA 14 for 16 yards (3-K.Curl; 1-E.Forbes).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to LA 7 for 7 yards (91-K.Turner).
- (2:47) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 84-M.Evans (53-N.Landman).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-3.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.89 pts |
| Curl route | +0.76 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Play action | +0.54 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Deep post | -2.06 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Field goal | -3.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.