Falcons vs Patriots — Week 9, 2025
The Falcons took over trailing 24-23 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 23, Patriots 24. Patriots won 24-23 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 19, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.6% for Falcons. Our model starts at 44.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle to ATL 27 for 8 yards (7-C.Davis).
- (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to ATL 32 for 5 yards (95-K.Tonga).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London ran ob at NE 48 for 25 yards.
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 87-D.Sills.
- (2:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NE 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 25-M.Jones to NE 18 for 2 yards (84-F.Franks; 4-K.Hodge).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.98 pts |
| Curl route | +0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Play action | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.23 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.47 pts |
| Deep post | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.