49ers vs Cardinals — Week 3, 2025

What really happened

Final: 49ers 16, Cardinals 15. 49ers won 16-15 — the drive scored.

49ers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 1:46 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.8% for 49ers. Our model starts at 33.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 1-R.Pearsall.
2. (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 88-J.Tonges to SF 31 for 11 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
3. (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 9-S.Moore to SF 41 for 10 yards (3-B.Baker).
4. (1:08) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to ARI 47 for 7 yards (34-J.Thompson).
5. (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne to ARI 36 for 11 yards (34-J.Thompson).
6. (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep left.
7. (:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to ARI 16 for 20 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 16-M.Melton).
8. (:07) (No Huddle) 10-M.Jones spiked the ball to stop the clock.
9. (:06) 10-M.Jones kneels to ARI 17 for -1 yards.
10. (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.18 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.