Packers vs Bears — Week 19, 2025
The Packers took over leading 27-24 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 27, Bears 31. Bears won 31-27 — the drive missed field goal.
Playoff football. Packers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 31, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.0% for Packers. Our model starts at 77.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed to GB 33 for 2 yards (6-K.Gordon). ** Injury Update: CHI-26-N.Wright has returned to the game.
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at CHI 33 for 34 yards.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 33 for no gain (50-G.Jarrett; 9-J.Brisker).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CHI 21 for 12 yards (6-K.Gordon).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 21 for no gain (98-M.Sweat; 50-G.Jarrett).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 88-L.Musgrave (49-T.Edmunds).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs.
- (2:56) 17-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.15 pts |
| QB keep | -0.18 pts |
| Quick out | -0.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Curl route | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -1.50 pts |
| End-around | -3.79 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.48 pts |
| Deep post | -6.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.