Bills vs Jaguars — Week 19, 2025
The Bills took over trailing 24-20 with 3:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Bills 27, Jaguars 24. Bills won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Bills ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 34, 3:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.1% for Bills. Our model starts at 30.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 42 for 8 yards (0-D.Lloyd).
- (3:19) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 43 for 1 yard (52-D.Hamilton; 91-A.Armstead).
- (3:00) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left tackle to BUF 44 for 1 yard (29-E.Murray; 23-F.Oluokun). (Virtual Measurement).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 18-B.Cooks to JAX 20 for 36 yards (26-An.Johnson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox to JAX 18 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to JAX 14 for 4 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to JAX 11 for 3 yards (26-An.Johnson; 30-M.Brown).
- (1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).
- (1:05) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| QB keep | +0.97 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Deep post | -0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.