Eagles vs Commanders — Week 18, 2025
The Eagles took over trailing 24-17 with 2:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 17, Commanders 24. Commanders won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 2:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.9% for Eagles. Our model starts at 11.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 28-W.Shipley ran ob at PHI 47 for 12 yards (4-F.Luvu).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 28-W.Shipley to PHI 46 for -1 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
- (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right.
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 2-J.Dotson ran ob at WAS 38 for 16 yards.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right [94-D.Payne].
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 83-K.Granson to WAS 31 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.08 pts |
| Deep post | +1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Spike it | -1.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.