Falcons vs Saints — Week 18, 2025
The Falcons took over leading 16-10 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at the Saints 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 19, Saints 17. Falcons won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Saints territory, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.0% for Falcons. Our model starts at 95.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) 25-T.Allgeier right guard to NO 23 for 4 yards (98-J.Bullard; 56-D.Davis).
- (3:09) 25-T.Allgeier left guard to NO 21 for 2 yards (56-D.Davis; 96-C.Granderson).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left end to NO 20 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis).
- (2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.94 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| Field goal | -0.94 pts |
| Quick out | -1.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| QB keep | -1.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Play action | -2.94 pts |
| Curl route | -3.33 pts |
| End-around | -5.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.38 pts |
| Deep post | -9.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.