Bills vs Chiefs — Week 9, 2025
The Bills took over leading 28-21 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Bills 28, Chiefs 21. Bills won 28-21 — the drive missed field goal.
Bills ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 33, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.4% for Bills. Our model starts at 91.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 4-J.Cook left tackle to BUF 35 for 2 yards (56-G.Karlaftis; 69-M.Pennel).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 44 for 9 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
- (2:51) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for 6 yards (97-A.Gillotte).
- (2:45) 4-J.Cook left tackle to KC 49 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie; 32-N.Bolton).
- (2:39) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook to KC 38 for 11 yards (6-B.Cook).
- (2:31) 4-J.Cook left guard to KC 37 for 1 yard (69-M.Pennel; 32-N.Bolton).
- (2:00) 4-J.Cook right guard to KC 35 for 2 yards (32-N.Bolton; 56-G.Karlaftis).
- (1:11) 4-J.Cook up the middle to KC 34 for 1 yard (56-G.Karlaftis).
- (:27) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -0.98 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.28 pts |
| QB keep | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -2.48 pts |
| Curl route | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -4.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.82 pts |
| Deep post | -8.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.72 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.