Lions vs Ravens — Week 3, 2025
The Lions took over leading 31-24 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Lions 38, Ravens 30. Lions won 38-30 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.3% for Lions. Our model starts at 90.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) 0-J.Gibbs left end pushed ob at DET 37 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
- (4:16) 0-J.Gibbs left guard to DET 41 for 4 yards (94-J.Jenkins; 95-T.Robinson).
- (3:32) 0-J.Gibbs right guard to DET 43 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington; 14-K.Hamilton).
- (2:48) 5-D.Montgomery left guard to DET 46 for 3 yards (94-J.Jenkins).
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 49 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith).
- (1:56) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 31 for 20 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Penalty on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:50) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Play action | -2.44 pts |
| Curl route | -2.85 pts |
| End-around | -4.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.77 pts |
| Deep post | -8.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.