Packers vs Lions — Week 13, 2025
The Packers took over leading 31-24 with 2:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Packers 31, Lions 24. Packers won 31-24 — the drive time expired.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 2:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.6% for Packers. Our model starts at 94.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:59) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 35 for no gain (46-J.Campbell).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle to GB 40 for 5 yards (21-A.Robertson; 34-A.Anzalone).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at GB 48 for 8 yards (6-T.Arnold).
- (2:43) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs right end to DET 49 for 3 yards (46-J.Campbell).
- (2:38) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs left guard to DET 45 for 4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Watson (32-B.Branch).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks to DET 29 for 16 yards (32-B.Branch) [54-A.McNeill].
- (1:09) 10-J.Love kneels to DET 30 for -1 yards.
- (:32) 10-J.Love kneels to DET 31 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| QB keep | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.14 pts |
| Deep post | -8.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.