Chargers vs Titans — Week 9, 2025
The Chargers took over leading 27-20 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 27, Titans 20. Chargers won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Chargers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Chargers. Our model starts at 92.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston (93-T.Sweat).
- (4:15) 32-J.Patterson left end to LAC 42 for 7 yards (18-J.Armour-Davis; 45-D.Jones).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 9-T.Harris to LAC 45 for 3 yards (26-M.Harris). Tennessee challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (3:03) 32-J.Patterson right guard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (69-S.Joseph; 33-C.Gray).
- (2:57) 10-J.Herbert left end to TEN 46 for 6 yards (33-C.Gray). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:09) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to TEN 44 for 2 yards (33-C.Gray).
- (2:00) 32-J.Patterson up the middle to TEN 41 for 3 yards (33-C.Gray).
- (1:55) 32-J.Patterson left guard to TEN 35 for 6 yards (18-J.Armour-Davis).
- (1:09) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to TEN 34 for 1 yard (93-T.Sweat; 50-C.Barton).
- (:29) 10-J.Herbert kneels to TEN 35 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.98 pts |
| QB keep | -1.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Curl route | -3.00 pts |
| Play action | -4.62 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -7.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -8.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.85 pts |
| Deep post | -10.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.