Cardinals vs Saints — Week 1, 2025
The Cardinals took over leading 20-13 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 20, Saints 13. Cardinals won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 26, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.5% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 94.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) 6-J.Conner left guard to ARI 29 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 32 for 3 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 17 for -15 yards (1-A.Taylor).
- (2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NO 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 42 for 11 yards (4-G.Dortch; 25-Z.Collins).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -1.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.82 pts |
| Curl route | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.25 pts |
| Deep post | -8.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.