Chiefs vs Raiders — Week 18, 2025
The Chiefs took over trailing 11-6 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at the Raiders 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 12, Raiders 14. Raiders won 14-12 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Raiders territory, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.1% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 41.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce (99-T.Booker).
- (4:25) 17-S.Buechele sacked at LV 24 for -3 yards (sack split by 45-D.White and 51-M.Koonce).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass incomplete short middle to 29-K.Hunt (99-T.Booker).
- (3:37) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+4.50 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.86 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +4.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Curl route | +1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| Play action | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Deep post | -2.34 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.