Broncos vs Texans — Week 9, 2025
The Broncos took over tied at 15 with 4:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 18, Texans 15. Broncos won 18-15 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 4:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 46.2% for Broncos. Our model starts at 53.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:40) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at DEN 24 for 4 yards (24-D.Stingley).
- (4:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 36 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley; 90-S.Rankins).
- (3:45) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 34 for -2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
- (3:03) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to DEN 35 for 1 yard (39-H.To'oTo'o; 55-D.Hunter).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 48 for 13 yards (29-M.Stewart).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end to 50 for 2 yards (4-K.Lassiter).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 1-E.Engram.
- (1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.44 pts |
| Curl route | +0.22 pts |
| QB keep | +0.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.08 pts |
| Play action | +0.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.30 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.94 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.92 pts |
| Deep post | -2.34 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.