Colts vs Rams — Week 4, 2025
The Colts took over tied at 20 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Colts 20, Rams 27. Rams won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 46.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 54.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to IND 37 for 17 yards (3-K.Curl). PENALTY on LA-48-O.Speights, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 37.
- (3:13) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 49 for -3 yards (31-D.Williams, 3-K.Curl).
- (2:25) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on IND-10-A.Mitchell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48.
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Pittman [55-B.Fiske].
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 33 for -9 yards (8-J.Verse). FUMBLES (8-J.Verse), recovered by IND-79-B.Raimann at IND 29.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 40 for 11 yards (14-C.Durant; 37-Q.Lake).
- (1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.92 pts |
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.01 pts |
| Deep post | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.