Steelers vs Jets — Week 1, 2025
The Steelers took over trailing 32-31 with 3:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 34, Jets 32. Steelers won 34-32 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 19, 3:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 44.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 29 for 10 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to NYJ 41 for 11 yards (30-M.Carter).
- (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 19-C.Austin to NYJ 40 for 1 yard (21-B.Stephens).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-J.Smith to NYJ 42 for -2 yards (95-Q.Williams).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Austin (21-B.Stephens).
- (1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.49 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.20 pts |
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| Quick out | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.95 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.18 pts |
| Deep post | -3.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.