Eagles vs Cowboys — Week 12, 2025
The Eagles took over tied at 21 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 21, Cowboys 24. Cowboys won 24-21 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 2, 3:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 54.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown ran ob at PHI 13 for 11 yards.
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to PHI 29 for 16 yards (6-D.Wilson).
- (2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 29 for no gain (0-D.Overshown).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 37 for 8 yards (0-D.Overshown). DAL-54-S.Williams was injured during the play.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 24 for -13 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa).
- (1:44) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DAL 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for no gain. PENALTY on DAL-9-K.Turpin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.55 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.65 pts |
| Outside run | -1.73 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Quick out | -1.83 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Play action | -3.15 pts |
| Curl route | -3.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.03 pts |
| Deep post | -5.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.