Colts vs Broncos — Week 2, 2025
The Colts took over trailing 28-26 with 3:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Colts 29, Broncos 28. Colts won 29-28 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 32, 3:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.8% for Colts. Our model starts at 43.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 36 for 4 yards (99-Z.Allen; 9-T.Hufanga).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 46 for 10 yards (29-J.McMillian; 40-J.Strnad).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to 50 for 4 yards (99-Z.Allen; 15-N.Bonitto).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to 50 for no gain (99-Z.Allen; 40-J.Strnad).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to DEN 43 for 7 yards (2-P.Surtain).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DEN 41 for 2 yards (96-E.Uwazurike).
- (1:02) 28-J.Taylor left guard to DEN 40 for 1 yard (92-D.Tillman; 49-A.Singleton).
- (:17) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DEN 42 for -2 yards (0-J.Cooper).
- (:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.39 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.24 pts |
| QB keep | +1.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Play action | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.85 pts |
| Deep post | -0.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.