Texans vs Colts — Week 18, 2025
The Texans took over trailing 30-29 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 38, Colts 30. Texans won 38-30 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 35, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.2% for Texans. Our model starts at 53.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 44-B.Brooks up the middle to HOU 42 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson to IND 41 for 17 yards (53-G.Pratt).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 14-J.Noel to IND 28 for 13 yards (0-C.Bynum; 44-Z.Franklin).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 44-B.Brooks up the middle to IND 26 for 2 yards (90-G.Stewart; 97-L.Latu).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 44-B.Brooks right guard to IND 25 for 1 yard (95-A.Adebawore).
- (:20) (Shotgun) 44-B.Brooks up the middle to IND 25 for no gain (20-N.Cross).
- (:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.24 pts |
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Play action | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Quick out | +0.61 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.03 pts |
| Deep post | -1.13 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.