Patriots vs Bills — Week 5, 2025
The Patriots took over tied at 20 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 23, Bills 20. Patriots won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 29, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 59.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 8-S.Diggs to NE 41 for 12 yards (47-C.Benford) [92-D.Jones].
- (2:00) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to NE 42 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau; 92-D.Jones).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte to BUF 39 for 19 yards (24-C.Bishop) [50-G.Rousseau].
- (1:18) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 34 for 5 yards (8-T.Bernard).
- (1:13) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 34 for no gain (44-J.Andreessen).
- (1:07) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 34 for 0 yards (24-C.Bishop).
- (:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.15 pts |
| Curl route | +0.94 pts |
| Outside run | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.09 pts |
| Deep post | -2.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.