Raiders vs Bears — Week 4, 2025
The Raiders took over trailing 25-24 with 1:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 24, Bears 25. Bears won 25-24 — the drive missed field goal.
Raiders ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 42, 1:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 56.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 49 for 7 yards (31-K.Byard) [9-J.Brisker].
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to CHI 43 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
- (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at CHI 39 for 4 yards (24-N.McCloud).
- (:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to CHI 35 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds). LV-74-K.Miller was injured during the play.
- (:43) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to CHI 36 for -1 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.27 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.27 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.55 pts |
| Curl route | +1.53 pts |
| Quick out | +1.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.12 pts |
| QB keep | +1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Play action | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.71 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.04 pts |
| Deep post | -3.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.