Browns vs Ravens — Week 11, 2025
The Browns took over tied at 16 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Browns 16, Ravens 23. Ravens won 23-16 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.2% for Browns. Our model starts at 51.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right to 10-Q.Judkins (40-T.Buchanan).
- (4:48) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin (14-K.Hamilton) [41-D.Jones].
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right [32-T.Simpson]. PENALTY on CLE-12-S.Sanders, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20. Penalty on CLE-72-K.Leveston, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (4:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CLE 44, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.75 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.75 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.41 pts |
| Curl route | +0.20 pts |
| Quick out | +0.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.32 pts |
| Play action | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.38 pts |
| Deep post | -2.94 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.